摘要: 介紹傳播動力學模型在HPV疫苗藥物經(jīng)濟學評價中的應(yīng)用和計算方法，以期為更好的HPV疫苗經(jīng)濟性評價提供參考。將人群分為n個年齡組和L個性活動層次，建立常微分方程組模擬HPV16/18兩種病毒感染在人群中的傳播和相關(guān)疾病的發(fā)生，并結(jié)合二價疫苗接種的保護效率對疾病預(yù)防健康產(chǎn)出進行評估。傳播動力學模型是動態(tài)進展模型，較Markov等靜態(tài)進展模型模擬結(jié)果更符合實際，但也因為需要參數(shù)多，且部分關(guān)鍵參數(shù)在我國暫無大規(guī)模人群調(diào)研數(shù)據(jù)，因此用于經(jīng)濟學評價時證據(jù)質(zhì)量受到一定影響。在HPV疫苗等傳播性疾病干預(yù)產(chǎn)品的經(jīng)濟性評價中采用傳播動力學模型以獲取更精確的證據(jù)，在目前參數(shù)不全的情況下，建議暫時以鄰國數(shù)據(jù)等方式替代。

Abstract: To provide a reference for economic evaluation on human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine vaccination, we briefly introduced the application of transmission dynamics model in HPV vaccine vaccination economic evaluation and related calculation methods. In the transmission dynamics model-based evaluation on vaccination of bivalent HPV vaccine, the population is divided into various age groups and individual activity levels; an ordinary differential equation set is established to simulate the transmission of HPV16/18 virus infection in the population and the occurrence of related diseases; and the health output of disease prevention is calculated in combination with the protection efficiency of the vaccine. The transmission dynamics model is a dynamic progress model, which is more realistic than the simulation results of static progress models such as Markov. However, due to the lack of some key parameters and large-scale population survey data in China, the quality of the economic evaluation on HPV vaccine vaccination is affected to some extent. Considering on the absence of some parameters for the evaluation nowadays, some data from other countries could be utilized in transmission dynamics model-based economic evaluation on HPV vaccine vaccination to obtain more accurate analysis results.

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